2014 WC qualifying draw – Group D and E’s key points

Group D:

- This may not be a particularly difficult group for the Netherlands but it’s possibly their toughest since WC 2006 after fairly easy passages to the following three major tournaments, and in Hungary there’s a side that helped to deny them qualification for Mexico ’86 but whom they’ve scored nine goals against in Euro 2012 qualifying. Both this group and the end of Euro 2012 qualifying will tell whether or not Hungary can continue to build on their promising play at both senior and youth level in the last few years and how they respond to those two defeats to the Dutch in March (0-4 in Budapest and 3-5 in Amsterdam). After reaching a new low in losing to Malta and Moldova and finishing sixth in Euro 2008 qualifying (Hungary didn’t finish below fourth in qualifying for 20 years after last qualifying for a major tournament in 1985), the Magyars showed signs of the form needed to at least make the playoffs by being in the running in WC 2010 qualifying until late in the picture and asked plenty of questions of Denmark, Portugal and Sweden. Reaching the semi-finals at the 2009 U-20 World Cup and a reasonable start to Euro 2012 qualifying also kept the momentum going until those meetings with the Netherlands, but the Amsterdam match should at least provide encouragement of picking up points against them in WC 2014 qualifying. Being level and even taking the lead for much of the second half was an impressive response just four days after a heavy loss at home, even if the defence continued to be a serious concern and they’re unlikely to qualify ahead of the Dutch like in 1985.

- The prospects for direct qualification for the Dutch are also brightened by the fact that, despite improving drastically in consistency in the last decade and a half and always contending for qualification, Turkey have still yet to make a major tournament by topping their qualifying group. It’s already all but certain that it won’t happen in Euro 2012 qualifying and there’s too much uncertainty over the future of coach Guus Hiddink to be too confident of him managing against his native country in a competitive game. It’s already happened of course with Russia’s shock 3-1 win over the Dutch in the Euro 2008 quarter-finals but a clash between a Hiddink-coached Turkey and his homeland would include the added twist of Hiddink having faced Turkey during his reign as Dutch coach in WC 1998 qualifying – the last competitive meetings between the two and which Turkey actually had the better of (1-0 win in Bursa, 0-0 in Amsterdam).

- The way things are going (they hold the same positions in WC 2010 qualifying and so far in Euro 2012 qualifying), Romania’s main battle might be depressingly to fend off Estonia for fourth more than having a serious tilt at qualifying. The demise of the Tricolorii since last appearing at a major tournament at Euro 2008 has been considerable for a team that at worst was never far off qualifying in every campaign between their first post-war major tournament in WC 1970 and Euro 2008. Estonia conversely have been a tougher nut to crack in the last couple of years than they’ve historically been, grabbing points (sometimes all three) off Belgium, Turkey and Serbia across WC 2010 and Euro 2012 qualifying and even giving Italy a big scare at home going into half-time 1-0 up in the latter campaign before losing 2-1.

Group E:

- Yet another pairing of two of the main contenders of one of the Euro 2000 qualifying groups. Norway and Slovenia finished first and second respectively in Group 2 in 1998-1999 and it was ultimately a turning point for both – Euro 2000 was Norway’s last major tournament appearance to date while Slovenia qualified for their first through the playoffs. Eight points separated the two back then but, even though Slovenia’s form since their WC 2010 campaign is not exactly impressive, this time it should be much closer. Norway were far more deserving of being among the top seeds in 1998 after qualifying for their second consecutive World Cup and their current first seeding is the big mystery of these European qualifiers. But as uninspiring as the group may generally look, it should at least be a close contest throughout with Switzerland making up the top three. As in their successful WC 2010 qualifiers when they were seeded third and grouped with an ordinary top two seeds in Greece and Israel, the draw could not have been much better for the Swiss.

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