2014 WC qualifying draw – Group D and E’s key points

Group D:

- This may not be a particularly difficult group for the Netherlands but it’s possibly their toughest since WC 2006 after fairly easy passages to the following three major tournaments, and in Hungary there’s a side that helped to deny them qualification for Mexico ’86 but whom they’ve scored nine goals against in Euro 2012 qualifying. Both this group and the end of Euro 2012 qualifying will tell whether or not Hungary can continue to build on their promising play at both senior and youth level in the last few years and how they respond to those two defeats to the Dutch in March (0-4 in Budapest and 3-5 in Amsterdam). After reaching a new low in losing to Malta and Moldova and finishing sixth in Euro 2008 qualifying (Hungary didn’t finish below fourth in qualifying for 20 years after last qualifying for a major tournament in 1985), the Magyars showed signs of the form needed to at least make the playoffs by being in the running in WC 2010 qualifying until late in the picture and asked plenty of questions of Denmark, Portugal and Sweden. Reaching the semi-finals at the 2009 U-20 World Cup and a reasonable start to Euro 2012 qualifying also kept the momentum going until those meetings with the Netherlands, but the Amsterdam match should at least provide encouragement of picking up points against them in WC 2014 qualifying. Being level and even taking the lead for much of the second half was an impressive response just four days after a heavy loss at home, even if the defence continued to be a serious concern and they’re unlikely to qualify ahead of the Dutch like in 1985.

Australian football’s formation deception

If the performances of the Young Socceroos in the 2011 U-20 World Cup weren’t frustrating enough, the analysis in the television coverage (and much of it in the general media) capped it off. Rather than critically and primarily focusing on practical elements of playing football like off-the-ball movement, space between the lines, control and decision making in tight spaces and the simple quality of defending (which was shockingly bad), those heading SBS’s coverage of the games in Colombia (Paul Okon, David Zdrilic, Kimon Taliadoros and host Scott McIntyre) were continuously fixated on the mission to work in with the FFA’s Dutch-inspired planned formation of 4-3-3.

2014 WC qualifying draw – UEFA Group B and C’s key points

Group B:

- Like Group A, there’s a repeat of a decisive Euro 2000 qualifying match-up in the form of Italy vs. Denmark. For two sides who hold no major cultural or historic rivalry or real geographical proximity, this is a more significant pairing than it might appear at first thanks to that Euro 2000 qualifying clash. The Danes are the last side to beat Italy on their home soil in a competitive game after coming back from 2-0 down to win 3-2 in Naples in September 1999, helped by a goal each from the recently retired Jon Dahl Tomasson and (internationally) Martin Jørgensen and another from the current Denmark U-21 coach Morten Wieghorst. The March 1999 game in Copenhagen was also notable for a young (and also recently retired) Jesper Grønkjær on debut inadvertently assisting Italy’s opening goal inside the first minute after making a back pass to Peter Schmeichel from halfway without noticing that Filippo Inzaghi was in the way. The controversial Euro 2004 group stage exit of Italy at the hands of Denmark and Sweden’s “win-win” draw also adds spice to things.

2014 WC qualifying draw – UEFA Group A’s key points

Group A:

- The Croatia-Serbia match-up, the first since 1999, will grab the headlines but the group as a whole is compelling and very reminiscent of Group 8 in Euro 2000 qualifying in both the teams and general difficultly. Croatia, Serbia (Yugoslavia back then and possessing Montenegrin players) and Macedonia are all together again and in Scotland and Wales there’s a Celtic aspect to the group as there was for Euro 2000 with the Republic of Ireland. As much as the Scots and Welsh may be easier opposition than the Irish were in 1998-1999 (they were within minutes of directly qualifying and won all of their home games with more than reasonable team), an extra Celtic team to beat perhaps makes up for a drop in quality with quantity. The big difference however from Euro 2000 qualifying is the added presence of Belgium.

2014 WC qualifying draw – Europe’s talking points in brief

- Two ostensibly weakest top seeds in Norway and to a lesser extent Greece drawn in the two weakest groups?

- Strength in depth in Group A – intriguing but rather concerning for the teams involved with the worst-ranked runner-up missing out completely on the playoffs. This could work in their favour though if much of the strength in depth tells in the last-placed side of Group A picking up more points against the runner-up than any of the other sixth-seeds do (in the mini-league of all the runners-up to decide who misses out, points against the sixth-placed sides in each group are discarded).

- Questionable to base them on the FIFA world rankings rather than UEFA’s previous method of their national team co-efficient, but seedings emphasise the recent rise of Montenegro, Slovakia and Slovenia at the expense of some bigger and/or older nations like Bulgaria, Romania, Poland and Scotland.

- Croatia and Serbia drawn together (enough said), Ukraine and Poland drawn together to contend qualification immediately after co-hosting Euro 2012, the two newest world champions in Spain and France drawn together.

- Unprecedented early timing of draw (the draw for South Africa 2010 took place on November 25 2007), particularly with respect to European qualifying that normally takes place in the new year.

Argentina’s Missing Link

Another draw, another failure for Argentina to go some way towards lifting enormous home pressure. For coach Sergio Batista it was also another night in which his side failed to achieve one of his major goals in getting the best out of Lionel Messi in the manner that Barcelona and particularly their midfield three do so well.

It’s clear to see the differences in the two midfields that Messi feeds off. In fairness to Éver Banega on the inside-right for Argentina, he can be legitimately hoped to eventually go a considerable way towards emulating for Argentina both the quality and style of Xavi’s masterful midfield play. Experience is extremely valuable in a fairly deep midfield role that demands so much intelligence however and Banega at 23, particularly under the major pressure Argentina have played before at home in this Copa América, has looked off with his decision making on the ball so far. In his first senior major tournament after dubiously being overlooked for South Africa 2010, is Banega starting in one too soon? Even Xavi himself, after coming off the bench in World Cup 2002, didn’t play from the start at a major tournament until World Cup 2006 when he was 26.

The difference between the albiceleste and the blaugrana is even more glaring to the left of midfield. Esteban Cambiasso is a player well worth his recall after his ridiculous omission under Diego Maradona but he has far more in keeping with holding midfielder Sergio Busquets than Andres Iniesta, who provides the most offensively multi-dimensional edge of Barca’s middle three.

Imagine a Barça midfield of Javier Mascherano, Busquets and a young Xavi, and also take away the vital runs of Dani Alves from full-back that provides an ever-present outlet when things get tight in the middle, and it might be pretty much what you have with Argentina’s midfield right now. The end result in the tough external circumstances Argentina find themselves in right now is not pretty when the side tries to get going in possession, resulting in a confused and sometimes strangely stretched midfield that is finding it extremely difficult to be comfortable in possession beyond halfway.

Tévez exclusion not the big issue for Argentina

Scoring at the World Cup... but Tévez now finds himself behind Messi and di María

The likely omission of Carlos Tévez from the upcoming Copa América has attracted plenty of attention, most notably from Diego Maradona who has not missed the chance to make another bitter attack on Sergio Batista, his successor as Argentina coach. You could say you would have to be drunk or stoned to also not call up Javier Zanetti, Esteban Cambiasso and Éver Banega for last year’s World Cup, just quietly.

Tévez’s form at Manchester City, despite all the mind-numbing will-he-or-won’t-he-go drama, is as good as he’s ever showed in his career. With those two excellent goals against Stoke City last week he finishes as the Premiership’s equal top scorer this season and is at the peak period of his career. Yet Tévez now finds his national team future at its most doubtful.

His status as a player inevitably means his exclusion from the Copa América has become the main talking point regarding Argentina’s line-up on home soil in July and this will continue for sometime. In an article attempting to get to the bottom of the matter, Ashley Gray concludes that “if things are going badly when Argentina try to win the Copa America in front of a demanding home crowd this July, Tévez is just the type of player Batista should have at his disposal.”

In reality, as tempting it is to focus on a star like Tévez, it is the make-up of the team further back that is likely to be more critical for the Albiceleste.

Brisbane giving the A-League more than just pretty football

Briscalona, Brisbarca, Roarcelona… Call this season’s Premiers and grand final hosts what you like, but what a pleasure it’s been to watch Ange Postecoglou’s Brisbane Roar bring something new to the table after a few fairly sterile years tactically for the A-League. It’s been as heartening for the competition as it’s off-field health has been concerning.

Ignoring the obvious gap in standard, Barcelona (among others) and Brisbane do share much in common: plenty of possession made possible by constant, thoughtful off-the-ball movement, a striking level of defensive workrate across the field, admirable fitness and a coach’s supreme emphasis on “playing well” (not so much out of aesthetics as the simple belief in it being the most effective way to win). There’s also the somewhat underrated defensive security and mental resilience; the Roar would not be where they are now without their quality at the back and impressive amount of resolve continually shown in difficult situations this season.

One important difference between the football of Barça and Brissie, at least in the short term, is perhaps the trends they can set. Particularly given their youth system and additional (and somewhat irresponsible) financial spending, Barça’s success stands out too much in a way for their style to be significantly emulated anytime soon. Here in the salary-cap environment of Australia though, it’s much different. What is stopping other A-League clubs from taking plenty on board from Brisbane, if not attempting to ultimately follow their lead?

Last of the “golden” Socceroos strive for first major title

After a year in which Australian men’s football suffered its heaviest defeat in World Cup competition (0-4 vs. Germany) since their first ever qualifier in 1965, lost out comprehensively in the bidding to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup and experienced a worrying further decline in A-League crowds, the Socceroos are suddenly one game away from a landmark achievement.

It’s somewhat of a strange outcome even putting aside the general tale of woe of 2010 and focusing on the 2011 AFC Asian Cup itself. After taking charge of an ageing, unconvincing team following South Africa 2010 and amid calls to rebuild with new faces, Holger Osieck elected to stick largely with experience for Qatar 2011, making it very clear he was set on winning in the short term. With a contract until 2014 and in a country that has traditionally kept its national team coaches on too long for the past few decades, was Osieck possibly working too much for his job security too early? And was it even the most effective route to victory?

Burns back in the frame… for now

Nathan Burns against Sydney last month

Nathan Burns’ selection in Australia’s first post-2010 World Cup squad has unsurprisingly been the most publicised call-up for the Slovenia friendly next week but it’s also significant given the paucity of goals present. Putting aside Tim Cahill, there are just 11 goals amongst the other 19 players named with Brett Holman the most prolific with four.

Even if the likes of Josh Kennedy, Harry Kewell and Scott McDonald were present, it is no secret that Australia needs as much potency (with goalscoring and creativity) up front it can get these days. Burns’ performances for AEK Athens in the Sydney Festival of Football provided some heartening signs with the quality of the touches and decision making, as well as confidence, having certainly improved since he left Adelaide United two years ago. Thankfully, it also appeared that his positional deployment – often central, fairly free-roaming and not based on the wing – was more suited to his natural strengths and instincts.

It still perplexes me how many seem to think the young striker is ultimately destined to a wider position. Burns’ very first several A-League games as an 18-year-old in late 2006 came as a secondary striker, scoring and dexterously creating in equal measure. The 2006 Asian Under-19 Championship then came as an interruption, and by the time he returned to Adelaide the Romário saga had begun and Burns was moved to the wing to make way for the 40-year-old Brazilian.

When that stint mercifully came to an end, coach John Kosmina elected to deploy Fernando Rech and Carl Veart as his two first-choice strikers. The early season performances from Burns, now persisted with out wide, would remain his best of the season until the end of it. He was temporarily moved up front in the last regular season game against the Central Coast Mariners, scoring a hat-trick, before creating and scoring another away to Shandong Luneng in the Asian Champions League a few months later.

The story of questionable positioning and inconsistency continued in the following season under Aurelio Vidmar before the 2008 move to Greece. Still a fairly unpolished talent at that time, Burns has had a difficult couple of years but needs to establish himself at a respectable level in Europe soon if he is to not miss the boat in some respects.

The dilemma for Burns is that for all the bright signs in Sydney last week his career remains between a rock and a hard place. If AEK deem Burns surplus to requirements for the season ahead, options elsewhere in Europe, with not a great deal of substance on the CV, will probably be scarce enough to force a return to the A-League and starting again at 22.

Yet failing to make the grade at AEK would hardly be anything worth being ashamed about in itself; Dušan Bajević’s side looked a very impressive outfit and quite strong in personnel in Sydney, and if Burns is doing well enough to start fairly regularly then he probably warrants a first XI spot in the Socceroos, put it that way.

The only real satisfactory middle ground between leaving or starting regularly at AEK for now would probably be regular appearances off the bench, and doing enough to either work his way into the starting line-up long-term or be picked up by a club providing more opportunities and still playing a decent level. Even so, it’s a dicey situation for a young player to be in and the next several months will go a long way towards deciding if the squad in Slovenia will be the start of a steady national team career for him or a frustrating one-off.